How Trump’s Proposed Tariffs Could Raise Food Costs

Get ready to pay more for avocados, coffee, and other groceries

For months, President Donald Trump has been adamant that, if elected, he would institute a series of tariffs on imported goods from countries like China, Canada, and Mexico. Though most economists agree that these tariffs would have a serious, negative impact on American consumers, Trump had been undeterred in his plan, promising to sign the tariffs into law on his first day in office.

That didn’t happen. Instead, Trump spent his first day in office issuing executive orders that proclaim that there are only two genders and eliminate federal diversity programs. But, the president has now promised that he will implement a 25 percent tariff on goods imported from Canada and Mexico starting on February 1.

It’s unclear why, exactly, Trump kicked the can down the road, but according to CNN, the proposed tariffs would be significant: In addition to the the 25 percent tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, he has proposed as much as 20 percent on imported goods from any country and a 60 percent tax on anything imported from China. But what exactly would that mean for consumers? Would prices automatically increase as much as 60 percent? Here’s what could happen.

How do tariffs work?

A tariff is a tax levied on goods that are imported to a country or exported from a country. These taxes are paid by the company who imports the item, directly to the government of that country. Tariffs are often used tactically by governments to give domestic businesses an edge in the market.

How much food does the U.S. import?

The United States imports a significant amount of its food supply — around 15 percent of the total American food supply is imported from other countries, according to the Food and Drug Administration — and that percentage is expected to grow. The United States has also operated in an “agricultural trade deficit,” which means that it has imported more agricultural products than it has exported for three of the past five years, and much of that deficit is due to increased demand for imported food products.

“The U.S. consumer’s growing appetite for high-valued imported goods — such as fruits and vegetables, alcoholic beverages, and processed grain products — has contributed to the expanding trade deficit,” according to a USDA Economic Research Service report. “Those goods often include products that can’t be easily sourced in the United States, such as tropical products or off-season produce.”

Why does Trump want more tariffs?

According to NPR, Trump believes that the implementation of these tariffs will put money into the federal government’s coffers. “We will take in hundreds of billions of dollars into our treasury and use that money to benefit the American citizens,” he told a Georgia campaign rally crowd in 2024. He also believes that the tariffs will make American manufacturers more competitive in the global market, and that they will be a boon for U.S. manufacturing jobs. Most economists disagree with Trump’s predictions.

What foods would be affected by Trump’s proposed tariffs? And didn’t Trump impose tariffs during his first term?

A lot of food, actually — and yes. The United States imports large amounts of produce from Mexico, including avocados and out-of-season tomatoes. In 2023, the most recent year for which data is available, 63 percent of the United States’s vegetable imports came from Mexico, as did 47 percent of imported fruits and nuts. Of the $22 billion in distilled spirits imported to the United States in 2022, $4.6 billion of that was spent on tequila from Mexico, along with more than $108 million in mezcal imports.

The United States is also heavily dependent on food imports from Canada. In 2023, the United States imported about $40 billion in agricultural food products from Canada, ranging from baked goods to canola oil. Over $1.7 billion alone in frozen potato products like french fries were imported that year, along with $2 billion in chocolate. Beef and pork are also popular imports from Canada, accounting for nearly $4 billion of the total. These imported cuts are especially important for American beef farmers, because it allows them to blend leaner imported meat with fattier, U.S.-raised meat to both meet the demand for lean ground beef in the United States, and sell more “trimmings” and fat to create this blended beef.

China, too, exports a ton of food to the United States. In 2019, when Trump levied his first round of 25 percent tariffs on Chinese-made goods, the taxes impacted upwards of $100 billion in imports. Around 78 percent of the tilapia, 70 percent of the apple juice, and nearly a quarter of all fresh garlic consumed in the United States come from China, according to the Alliance for American Manufacturing. Trump’s 2019 tariffs on steel and aluminum remain in place, and have caused price increases for consumers on a wide range of goods, including canned foods. Increasing the tax from 25 percent to 60 percent would have further impacts. The price of imported goods would, of course, continue to go up, but the tariffs could also introduce more instability into China’s already flagging economy and disrupt supply chains.

What happens if these tariffs go into effect?

It’s unclear exactly what impact massive tariffs would have on the broader economy, but experts agree on one thing: Food costs will almost assuredly increase, and not insignificantly. Prices on avocados, chocolate, coffee, and other popular imports could increase as much as the full 25 percent tariff in a matter of weeks, especially in cases where goods cannot be imported easily from other countries. For example, the United States imports 90 percent of its avocados from Mexico, and it wouldn’t be easy to find a different country to meet that demand. Overall, one analysis found that the tariffs could result in American families spending about $185 more per year at the grocery store, an increase of about 3 percent. As the think tank Third Way notes, the ramifications would be more significant for lower income families, who spend a larger proportion of their incomes on groceries and other necessities.

It’s also possible that Canada and Mexico could respond to Trump’s tariffs with their own retaliatory tariffs, a common tactic in global trade. When Trump levied tariffs against China in 2019, the country responded with a 25 percent tariff on soybean imports from the United States, which had a significant impact on both Chinese consumers and American farmers. Mexico has implied that it would retaliate with its own tariffs, and the Canadian government is already discussing retaliatory measures against Trump’s proposed tariffs, which some say could culminate in an “all-out trade war.”